South Korea army to hold huge drill, North silent

A South Korean Army soldier walks up steps of a guard post near the demilitarised zone separating the two Koreas in Paju, north of Seoul, on December 22, 2010.


South Korea announced land and sea military exercises yesterday including its largest-ever live-fire drill near North Korea just as tension on the peninsula was beginning to ease after Pyongyang’s attack on a southern island.

The land drill, involving three dozen mobile artillery guns, six fighter jets, multiple launch rocket systems and 800 troops, the largest number of personnel in a single peace-time exercise, will take place on Thursday and is likely irritate the North.

The scale of the drill and the timing, coming right after the tensely staged a live-fire exercise on Monday, indicate South Korea’s conservative President Lee Myung-bak sees more political mileage in taking a tough military stance rather than reverting to dialogue, despite overtures from Pyongyang.




Lee’s government was heavily criticised at home for a perceived weak response to North Korea’s shelling of the southern island of Yeonpyeong last month.

“We’ll be sure to deal a punishing blow if the North tries to repeat the kind of situation like the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong,” Brigadier General Ju Eun-shik said in a statement.

There was no immediate reaction from North Korea. State news agency KCNA, which regularly denounces the South, United States and Japan, made no mention of the drills, although it carried an article lambasting a US lawmaker critical of Pyongyang as “human scum” and a “political illiterate.”

South Korea is also holding three days of live-firing naval drills off the peninsula’s east coast starting yesterday, a media official at the Defence Ministry said.

He would not provide details. Yonhap news agency said the drills were taking place 100 km south of the maritime border with North Korea and involved at least six naval vessels.

North Korea this week offered to re-admit UN inspectors concerned about its nuclear-weapon programme, leading to speculation of a resumption of six-party disarmament talks and a general sense of relief that the crisis had passed.

“The drills are an indication that (the South) is aiming to keep tensions very high, partly because of the possibility of the North striking back,” said Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University.

“Dialogue is clearly not high on the agenda. It’s still very much in the mode of how they can respond to incidents like the one on Yeonpyeong and to show that response in the future will be overwhelming.”

The South Korean Army is making no secret that the drill is aimed at displaying its firepower to its neighbour.

“Yes, it will be a show of force against that,” an army officer said, when asked if the shelling of Yeonpyeong last month was a factor in the land drill’s planning.

He said similar drills had been staged previously on more than 50 occasions, but the scale this time was unprecedented.

“The scale of mechanised assets taking place is enormous. When we would normally have 6 K-9 mechanised artillery, we’ll have 36. We’ll have the F-15 jets firing. We’ll have choppers. You can say most of the mechanised assets taking part will be firing live ammunition.”

It will take place in the Pocheon region, less than 50 km north of downtown Seoul.

The latest crisis peaked when North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong, just south of the disputed maritime border, killing four people — including two civilians — in the worst attack on South Korean territory since the end of the civil war in 1953.

The South carried out live-fire drills on Yeonpyeong on Monday, which provoked only a verbal reaction from the North. It had vowed to strike back if the South went ahead with the drills, prompting fears of all-out war.

China, North Korea’s only major ally, has urged dialogue to resolve the crisis and urged Pyongyang to follow through on its offer to allow UN inspectors into the country.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry had no immediate comment on the planned drill.

Analysts say the North is unlikely to undertake another hostile act like this year’s attack on South Korea’s Cheonan warship, blamed on the North by the United States and the South, and the Yeonpyeong shelling, at least in the near term.

Its most likely next move would be to conduct live-fire artillery drills or possibly a short-range missile test into its waters off the west coast.

Analysts have said they believe its recent military acts were aimed at bolstering the ruling family as ailing leader Kim Jong-il grooms his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor.

“North Korea likes to step towards the brink and then away from it again,” said Brian Myers, an expert on the North at South Korea’s Dongseo University.

“The news from Pyongyang in the past few days indicates that the Kim Jong-il regime is now in the backing-off part of its usual cycle.”

He said the North probably did not expect the South to go through with live-fire exercises on Monday.

“If it had, it would not have made such loud threats of reprisal in its domestic media. After the exercises took place, the Kim regime had to tell its own people that the South’s ‘provocation’ was not worth responding to, a flip-flop it cannot afford to repeat in just a few days. I don’t expect the North to be quite as vocal about the next round of exercises.”

South Korean Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun, speaking before the announcement of the drill, said domestic financial markets had weathered the crisis and the South Korean economy, Asia’s fourth-largest, stayed on a growth track.

But he warned that the tension could still dent consumer spending with a key sentiment measure due tomorrow.

South Korean markets were unaffected by the tensions with foreign investors buying into stocks and bond futures. Traders said earlier that the won currency was generally being affected more by concern over the euro zone.

Consumers and businesses in South Korea say they have lived with tension on the divided peninsula for years and markets do not always react, although the recent crisis had rattled global markets and remained an underlying risk

South Korea marks 60th anniversary of historic battle with dramatic re-enactment involving hundreds of troops

South Korea has staged a dramatic military re-enactment to mark the 60th anniversary of one of the most important battles of the Korean War.

Around 14,000 people took part in the event, which involved ships, aircraft and soldiers from South Korea, Australia and the United States, at the coastal city of Incheon.

The re-enactment of the Incheon Landing took place despite protests from North Korea that the original landing was a 'crime committed with the aims of bringing down the Korean people'.

A North Korea state newspaper said the ceremony was planned to deliberately provoke Pyongyang and showed its enemies' 'ambition for invasion... remains unchanged though over half a century has passed'.

The rapid amphibious invasion was followed by a bloody 11-day advance in Seoul, with U.S General Edward Almond eventually declaring the city liberated on September 25 1950

South Korea, with the help of the US military, has staged numerous 'War Games' in recent years.

The massive military drills are designed to be a show of strength to counteract the continual threatening behaviour by North Korea.

The event on Wednesday involved veterans of the 1950-53 Korean War from nine countries.

Twelve ships, 16 aircraft and some 200 marines from South Korea, the U.S. and Australia took part in the event, which included a mock landing, marine reconnaissance diving and a fly-past.
The original landing at the coastal city of Incheon in September 1950 by United Nations Forces, led by U.S. General Douglas MacArthur, occurred just months after North Korea invaded the South, sparking the conflict.

The hugely successful mission is seen by historians at a turning point in the war, ending a string of victories by the invading North Korean People's Army (NKPA) and resulting in the subsequent recapture of the South's capital Seoul.

The rapid amphibious invasion was followed by a bloody 11-day advance in Seoul, with U.S General Edward Almond eventually declaring the city liberated on September 25.
The two Koreas have technically remained at war ever since after the fighting ended with an armistice, with no peace treaty ever agreed.

Relations between the two nations have worsened in recent months after the South blamed Pyongyang of sinking one of its warships in March.

Last week the North released four South Korean fisherman who had been held for a month after being accused of illegally straying into North Korea's waters.

Controversial: The dramatic re-enactment took place despite protests from North Korea that the original landing was a 'crime committed with the aims of bringing down the Korean people'

A South Korean Navy hovercraft travels past U.S. Navy's amphibious transport dock ship USS Denver during a mock landing operation in the sea off Incheon

Landing: The event involved ships, aircraft and soldiers from South Korea, Australia and the United States

Historic battle: South Korean amphibious vehicles joined the mock landing operation in the sea off Incheon where United Nations forces landed in September 1950

U.S. and the South Korean Marine landing crafts sail to shores in a smoke screen near the Dokdo Ham, South Korean Navy's 14,000 ton-class large-deck landing ship

History: The original landing, by United Nations Forces and led by U.S. General Douglas MacArthur, took place at the coastal city of Incheon in September 1950

Around 14,000 people took part in the re-enactment to mark the 60th anniversary of the historic landing which historians claim marked a turning point in the Korean War

Clinton Denounces North Korean Belligerence, Myanmar Oppression

"A key element of our strategy is to strengthen regional and global institutions," Hillary Clinton said

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denounced North Korean aggression and urged Myanmar to make its first elections in two decades more democratic.





“Here in Asia, an isolated and belligerent North Korea has embarked on a campaign of provocative, dangerous behavior,” Clinton told the 27-member Asean Security Forum in Hanoi today. “Peaceful resolution of the issues on the Korean Peninsula will be possible only if North Korea fundamentally changes its behavior.”

The remarks, made in the presence of North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun, came two days after Clinton announced new U.S. sanctions against the regime for sinking a South Korean warship in March. North Korea yesterday attacked her actions and maintained that it didn’t torpedo the corvette Cheonan.

Clinton also used her speech to put pressure on Myanmar, an Asean member that she referred to by its former name of Burma.

“The United States also remains deeply concerned about the oppression taking place in Burma, including restrictive electoral laws that further stifle the lives of the Burmese and make the possibility of free and fair elections this year unlikely,” she said, according to a State Department transcript. “We urge Burma to put in place the necessary conditions for credible elections, including releasing all political prisoners, respecting basic human rights, and ceasing attacks against ethnic minorities.”

Clinton Announces New Sanctions Against NKorea-US-South Korean war games a threat to peace, says North

NKorea warns UN not to discuss warship sinking

North Korean soldiers look at South Korea from their observation post at the border village of the Panmunjom, South Korea, Wednesday, June 9, 2010. North Korea threatened to retaliate against South Korea for taking it to the U.N. Security Council over the deadly sinking of a warship, calling the action an "intolerable provocation."




North Korean workers walk by a North Korean soldier at the border village of the Panmunjom, South Korea, Wednesday, June 9, 2010. North Korea threatened to retaliate against South Korea for taking it to the U.N. Security Council over the deadly sinking of a warship, calling the action an "intolerable provocation."

North Korea sent the U.N. Security Council a letter warning the world body to not even open debate on the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship blamed on Pyongyang, state media reported Wednesday.

South Korea last week officially asked the U.N. Security Council to punish North Korea, after an international investigation said a North torpedo attack sunk a South ship in March, killing 46 sailors. North Korea flatly denies responsibility and says any punishment would trigger war.




An U.S. Army soldier stands guard with South Korean Army soldiers at the border village of the Panmunjom, South Korea, Wednesday, June 9, 2010. North Korea threatened to retaliate against South Korea for taking it to the U.N. Security Council over the deadly sinking of a warship, calling the action an "intolerable provocation."

Sin Son Ho — North Korea's permanent representative at the U.N. — sent Security Council president Claude Heller a letter Tuesday saying the council must not open a debate on the "the unilaterally forged" investigation results because that would fringe upon the North's sovereignty, the official Korean Central News Agency said in a dispatch from Pyongyang.

"No one would dare imagine how serious its consequences would be" over security on the Korean peninsula if the debate starts, Sin said in the letter, according to the KCNA dispatch.

Sin said the U.N. council instead should take steps helping South Korea and the U.S. accept North Korean inspectors to verify the investigation results, it said.

The ship sinking is the first inter-Korean provocation in which the South has taken the North to the Security Council, despite a history of attacks by the North since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

The Security Council has several choices: a resolution with or without new sanctions against North Korea, a weaker presidential statement calling for specific actions, or a press statement.

The Security Council earlier imposed sanctions against North Korea after its two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009. These include U.N. embargoes on nuclear and ballistic missile-related items and technology, on arms exports and imports except light weapons, and on luxury goods.

S.Korea to ship aid to North despite tensions

South Korea Wednesday approved two aid shipments of baby formula to North Korea despite rising tensions over the sinking of one of Seoul's warships.

The unification ministry, which must authorise all cross-border exchanges, said the shipments from private groups of milk and other items totalling 320,000 dollars would be sent late this month.



The South cut off most trade with the North after accusing its neighbour of firing a torpedo to sink the ship in March with the loss of 46 lives. It exempted humanitarian aid.

The impoverished North suffers severe food shortages. The UN Children's Fund says one in three of its children is stunted by malnutrition.

Seoul announced its reprisals after investigators from five countries said they found overwhelming evidence that a North Korean submarine had torpedoed the corvette near the disputed Yellow Sea border.

The North denies involvement and says reprisals could spark war.

South Korea has also referred the case to the 15-member United Nations Security Council, saying it must act to censure an act of aggression.

The foreign ministry said Wednesday the investigators would brief council members about their findings at a date to be fixed, at the request of current chairman Mexico.

Of the five permanent veto-wielding council members, China and Russia have so far failed publicly to back moves for UN censure.

Vice Foreign Minister Chun Yung-Woo was due back Wednesday evening from a visit to Beijing to seek its support. China has not publicly condemned its ally the North and has appealed only for restraint.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates prods China on NKorea, military ties to US

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, center, Japan's Minister of Defense Toshimi Kitazawa, right, and South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae Young, shake hands during the Shangri-La Dialogue's Asia Security Summit in Singapore, Saturday, June 5, 2010.


Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, left, shakes hands Japan's Minister of Defense, Toshimi Kitazawa, during the Shangri-La Dialogue's Asia Security Summit in Singapore, Saturday, June 5, 2010.


The Chinese military's deputy chief of staff, General Ma Xiaotian, listens as Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates delivers remarks during the first plenary session at the Shangri-La Dialogue's Asia Security Summit in Singapore, Saturday, June 5, 2010.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates challenged China to deal realistically with the short-term question of how to respond to an antagonistic North Korea and the longer-term issue of whether Beijing's expanding military can establish more durable ties with the U.S.

Asian nations cannot stand by in the face of North Korea's alleged sinking of a South Korean warship, Gates said during an international security summit Saturday that was dominated by questions about the North.

"To do nothing would set the wrong precedent," Gates said.


The Chinese military's deputy chief of staff, General Ma Xiaotian, listens to a translation with headphone as Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates in introduced to deliver remarks during the first plenary session at the Shangri-La Dialogue's Asia Security Summit in Singapore, Saturday, June 5, 2010.

The latest crisis with North Korea points out the limited options to deter further attacks or dismantle its nascent nuclear weapons program. The United States and China were part of a diplomatic effort to buy out the North's nuclear program that fell apart two years ago.

In an interview Saturday, Gates mused that North Korea seems immune to many of the traditional levers of international pressure, such as ostracization.

"How do you gain purchase with a regime that doesn't seem to care what happens to it?" Gates said in the BBC interview.

"As long as the regime doesn't care what the outside world thinks of it, as long as it doesn't care about the well-being of its people, there's not a lot you can do about it, to be quite frank, unless you're willing at some point to use military force. And nobody wants to do that."

The U.S. and South Korea want China to back a new international condemnation or punishment of the North.

At the Shangri-La Dialogue conference in Singapore, Gates joined South Korea in trying to marshal world support for the conclusion that North Korea was to blame for the sinking and should be held to account. South Korean officials handed out glossy pamphlets containing the results of an international investigation that found North Korea blew the warship Cheonan apart with a torpedo.

China, the North's closest ally, has not assigned blame for the sinking in March that killed 46 South Korean sailors.

Gates met several times with South Korean officials over two days here, including a symbolic three-way discussion Saturday with officials from South Korea and Japan. Washington is pledged to defend both nations as a legacy of U.S. wars in the Pacific.

Gates made the point during that session that the three nations "have to have a united front to deter further provocation," Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said afterward.

South Korea referred the sinking to the U.N. Security Council on Friday. The council has the power to impose penalties. China is one of five veto-holding members of the council.

China is the communist North's largest patron, giving it economic and political pull over an otherwise reclusive government. The U.S. and South Korea want China to use that clout to rein in the North Koreans.

At the security summit, Gates did not mention China's financial and diplomatic support for North Korea but said "the nations of this region share the task of addressing these dangerous provocations."

In a tense exchange following his address to the conference, Gates dismissed suggestions by a Chinese general that Washington was being hypocritical in criticizing North Korea but not Israel for its commando raid on an aid flotilla in the Mediterranean Sea this past week.

"There is a wide gap in the U.S. attitude and policy to the two instances," said Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu of China's National Defense University.

Gates said the attack on the warship was a surprise operation conducted "without any warning." Israel had issued several warnings to the flotilla not to enter its territorial waters, he said.

"I won't make judgment on responsibility or fault" about that incident, Gates said, adding that he favors an international investigation to determine responsibility.

The general also took on Gates over the issue of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, a constant irritant to Beijing, and Gates' assertion that China's military is balking at forging more durable ties with the United States.

"The Chinese are taking the Americans as a partner, as friends, and Americans take the Chinese as enemies," Zhu said.

Gates challenged China to resume military cooperation suspended after the Obama administration went ahead with a planned weapons sale to Taiwan worth more than $6 billion. The two powers cannot afford to misunderstand one another, Gates said.

Zhu said some contacts have continued since January, and made no promises.

Profile: Kim Jong-un -On the tracks of 'Kim's successor'

Kim Jong-il reportedly suffered a stroke last year


The only known image of Kim Jong-un shows him as a young boy,third son of Kim Jun-il.

Kim Jong-il's third son, Kim Jong-un, will become North Korea's next leader, according to unconfirmed South Korean media reports. The BBC News website and BBC Monitoring profile this elusive young man.

Kim Jong-un is youngest son of Kim Jong-il and his late third wife Ko Yong-hui.

Born in 1983 or early 1984, the young Kim was initially not thought to be in the frame to take up his father's mantle.

Analysts focused their attention on his half-brother Kim Jong-nam and older full brother Kim Jong-chol.

But speculation that he was in the frame to succeed his father picked up in January, after a report in South Korea's Yonhap news agency suggested that Kim Jong-il had picked him as heir.



North Korea watchers also took his reported appointment to the powerful National Defence Commission as a possible signal that he was being moved into a leadership position.

The defence commission is North Korea's most important government body, and Kim Jong-il rules the country in his capacity as the commission's chairman.

On 2 June, Seoul's intelligence agency reportedly briefed legislators that North Korean officials had been ordered to support the choice of Kim Jong-un as the next leader.

However there has also been much speculation that the man being lined up as the real "power behind the throne" is Chang Song-taek - the husband of Kim Jong-il's sister and director of the administrative department of the North Korean Workers Party.

Some analysts see him acting as a "regent" to Kim Jong-un until he is ready to rule on his own.

'Morning Star King'

Kim Jong-un's mother, Ko Yong-hui, was thought to be Kim Jong-il's favourite wife, and she clearly doted on her son, reportedly calling him the "Morning Star King".

In his 2003 book, "I was Kim Jong-il's Chef", a Japanese man writing under the pseudonym Kenji Fujimoto also claimed that Jong-un was his father's favourite.


But the mysterious death of Ko Yong-hui in 2004 appeared to put the younger Kim firmly behind his half-brother Jong-nam in the leadership stakes.

However Jong-nam's deportation from Japan in May 2001, and middle brother Jong-chol's apparent "unmanliness" subsequently improved his chances.

Swiss-educated like his brothers, Kim Jong-un avoided Western influences, returning home when not in school and dining out with the North Korean ambassador.

Since his return to Pyongyang, little has been made public about his character.

In 2006, badges bearing his image were said to be circulating among senior officials of the ruling Korean Workers' Party, arousing suspicions that he had been chosen as Kim Jong-il's successor.

In his father's image

Said by Kim Jong-il's chef, Mr Fujimoto, to be the "spitting image" of his father, the young Kim has never been photographed by the Western media.

The only photograph known to exist of him is one taken when he was 11 which Mr Fujimoto said he was given by Kim Jong-un before he left North Korea.

Kim Jong-un also shares some of his father's health problems, and is reported to already have diabetes and heart disease due to a lack of exercise.

Like his film-loving father, Jong-un is said to enjoy popular culture, and is apparently a fan of NBA basketball.

One South Korean newspaper, the Dong-a Ilbo, has reported that the North was teaching its people a song lauding Kim Jong-un to raise his profile.

But this detail, as with many others in secretive North Korea, is impossible to confirm.



So little is known about Kim Jong-un - the youngest son and reportedly the named successor of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il - that even his date of birth is uncertain: no-one is really sure whether he was born in 1983 or 1984.

But it is known that the third Kim, like his two elder brothers, was sent to school in Switzerland. The BBC's Imogen Foulkes reports on the young Kim's school days, and the unusually close relationship between Switzerland and North Korea.

Kim Jong-un attended Berne's international school, where, it is rumoured, he joined school skiing outings, and was something of a peacemaker in playground disputes.

He arrived every day in a chauffeur-driven car from the North Korean embassy, which is just around the corner from the school.

But, since Jong-un went under an assumed name, none of his classmates knew his true identity.

He is said to have been closely supervised by embassy officials - but he also apparently speaks Swiss German - and since the language of the international school is English, that indicates that the young Kim did spend some time socialising.

The choice of a Swiss education for North Korea's future leader may not be a coincidence.

North Korea's ambassador to Switzerland has been in his post for more than 20 years and North Korea watchers regard Ri Tcheul as extremely powerful, enjoying the confidence of Kim Jong-il.

Studying cheese

Switzerland has surprisingly close ties with North Korea.

During the famine of the 1990's the Swiss launched a substantial humanitarian relief operation, which, almost alone among foreign aid projects, was subsequently transformed into a long-term development programme.

In 2003 Switzerland's foreign minister was the first foreign government official to cross the demarcation line between North and South Korea.

At the time she offered Switzerland's services as a mediator between the two Koreas.

And every year North Korean officials come to Switzerland, ostensibly to study the Swiss federal system - the most recent visit was in February.

North Korean agricultural specialists regularly spend time here studying the Swiss art of making cheese and yoghurt, which Kim Jong-il is said to love.

But recently, there are signs that warm relationship may be cooling.

The two biggest Swiss banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, stung by allegations that Kim Jong-il was storing billions in Switzerland, announced in 2006 that they were cutting ties with North Korea.

Meanwhile, Switzerland's development programme is set to end in 2011, amid rumours Swiss financial aid was going not to North Korean farms, but into the coffers of the government in Pyongyang.

China's dilemma on eccentric North Korea

Mr Wen (right) wants to avoid Korean instability at all costs


A war would see a flood of refugees over the North Korea-China border 

At the end of the three-way conference between President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea, Yukio Hatoyama, the Japanese prime minister, and Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, a great many people here must have been hoping to hear Mr Wen criticise North Korea for allegedly torpedoing the South Korean naval ship Cheonan two months ago.

At the very least they would have wanted him to accept publicly that North Korea had been responsible for it, as an international inquiry has maintained. If so, it was one of the most dangerous acts of war in the Korean peninsula in recent years.

Mr Wen refused. He sent his condolences to the families of the 46 South Korean sailors who were killed. He called for restraint. He hinted at the dire consequences of war.



But even though North Korea is China's protege, he would not condemn it in public.
Not good company

Nowadays China is keen to show the world that it is serious and responsible - a great power which can be trusted to behave properly.

And yet it chooses to give its support to a country which is regularly accused of being an outlaw.

If you see things from the vantage point of Beijing, though, it all looks rather different.

It seems safe to assume that if the Chinese felt they could safely dump North Korea and its strange, eccentric leader Kim Jong-il (whom his people are expected to call The Dear Leader), they certainly would.

Each new group of leaders in China, as it comes to power, is a little less friendly and supportive towards him. The Dear Leader is nothing short of an embarrassment. His regime is regularly accused of planning crimes and assassinations.

It is hard to work out whatever reason one of his submarines would have had to attack a South Korean ship in South Korean waters. Yet most experts here and in the West assume that the orders must have come from the top - or very near it.

This is not good company for China to keep.

Suppose, though, that Wen Jiabao had emerged from his summit meeting and told the world's press that China condemned North Korea in strong terms. His government would have made several new friends; but Kim Jong-il would have gone off the deep end immediately.

War, which despite the rhetoric actually seems quite far away at present, would have become more likely right away. Without China to warn him of the consequences, he or his associates could easily order an attack on South Korea.

Even so, outright fighting, though it might cost a great many casualties, would almost certainly be won by the South, with American help.

Large numbers of refugees would flood across North Korea's border with China. Kim Jong-il's ramshackle regime would probably fall quickly. Korea would be reunited, as a capitalist, strongly pro-American ally abutting on to China.

Who knows what might happen then to China's own, often insecure political leadership?

Mr Wen and his colleagues could lose everything.

This is all highly speculative; but we can be sure that China believes instability on the Korean peninsula is something which has to be avoided at all costs - just in case.

And if that means angering the South Koreans and turning a blind eye to a shocking act of aggression, so be it.

The way China sees it, this will protect the safety of ordinary South Koreans better than any ritual condemnation.

All the same, many other countries will regard it as yet another example of the tail wagging the dog: the uncontrollable North Koreans forcing their immensely more powerful Chinese neighbours to support them - or else.

SKorea steps up campaign over ship sinking-China and Japan 'back North Korea financial sanctions'

Japan,China and South Korea PMs wants to avoid Korean instability at all costs


China and Japan has both agree to punish NKorea with financial sanctions.


South Korea PM has tough job to handle NKorea aggression and the death of 46 South Korea submarine crews.


South Korea's former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook (front R), who is the main opposition Democratic Party's candidate for Seoul mayoral position in the upcoming local election, arrives for an election campaign 

South Korea says it has persuaded China and Japan to take part in financial sanctions against North Korea.

It comes in the wake of the sinking of a South Korean naval ship by a North Korean submarine.

In a BBC interview, South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan speculated that the sinking of the Cheonan might have been the result of internal Pyongyang politics.

North Korea has angrily denied any responsibility for the attack.

The North Korean military, Mr Yu said, might have decided to do it in order to distract attention from other problems.



Mr Yu had no criticisms to make of China for failing to condemn North Korea publicly for the sinking of the Cheonan.

On the contrary, he felt that China had been privately helpful and understanding during the three-way summit with South Korea and Japan, which ended on Sunday.

South Korea is hoping to make the regime in Pyongyang pay a heavy price for its actions.

It is invoking UN resolution 1695, passed in 2006, which makes it possible to introduce economic sanctions against North Korea for breaching its international obligations.

The government in Seoul wants all inflows of money to North Korea to be stopped.

If China, which has so far delayed announcing its own findings on the sinking of the Cheonan, does take part in the sanctions, it could make life even harder for President Kim Jong-il's regime.

Fragile economy

Things are already difficult enough for him. The famine of the past seems mostly to have been dealt with, at least for now, as a result of the government's decision to allow a quiet measure of free enterprise.

But this has helped to create a great deal of corruption among low-level officials, on a scale which the North Korean regime had never previously allowed.

Towards the end of last year North Korea introduced a currency reform which had the effect of raising some salaries by as much as 10,000%.

This made it possible for a lot of people to buy things they had only previously dreamt of.

The shops were suddenly filled with great quantities of cheap consumer goods, mostly brought or smuggled in from China. But it also introduced alarming rates of inflation.

The inflow of cash from outside has never been large, but it has helped to keep North Korea's immensely fragile economy going. If the Chinese join in a wider blockade, it could have serious political consequences as well as economic ones.

It comes at a time when Kim Jong-il, the so-called "Dear Leader", is becoming manifestly weaker. He was once surprisingly clever at wrong-footing both South Korea and the United States in the past, but ever since his stroke in 2008 his powers have waned.

Now his third and youngest son, Kim Jong-un, seems to have been selected to take over from him, just as Kim Jong-il himself was once chosen to succeed "the Great Leader", Kim Il-sung.

Scarcely anything is known about Kim Jong-un, who is either 27 or 28 - accounts vary. He is thought to have been educated in Switzerland, and he possibly speaks quite good English.

Only one authentic photograph of him exists in the public domain, and since that was taken when he was eleven it is not much of a guide to his appearance now.

Rumour in South Korea has it that he was involved in the disastrous decision to reform the currency last year.

Mr Yu admitted in his BBC interview that all these things made people feel nervous about the future of the peninsula at present.

"If things go wrong it could have very serious consequences far wider than just Korea," he said.

It sounds like a measured understatement.

North Korea threatens to launch 'immediate physical strikes' as South Korea stages anti-submarine drills off coast

Tensions: A South Korean soldier hits an effigy of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il during a rally in Seoul

Drills: The South Korean navy has been carrying out anti-submarine exercises off the coast, despite warnings from the north

Anger: More than 10,000 protesters gather at a rally today after the sinking of a South Korean warship in March

North Korea annouced today that it will scrap an agreement aimed at preventing accidental naval clashes after Seoul blamed it for a torpedo attack which sank a South Korean warship.

Tensions between the two countries have risen dramatically since a team of international investigators said last week that a torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine sank the warship on March 26, killing 46 sailors.

North Korea has denied any involvement in the sinking and warned any retaliation would mean war.
The country's military said in a statement released by the official Korean Central News Agency: 'Immediate physical strikes will be launched against any South Korean ships that intrude into North Korean waters.'



Defiant: South Korean sailors manning the guns on a warship during 2nd Fleet training

It said it will also start a review to possibly ban South Korean personnel and vehicles from entering a joint industrial park in Kaesong - the last remaining major inter-Korean reconciliation project.

The military said the measures are its first-phase reaction to 'the reckless moves of the group of traitors and confrontation maniacs'.

A South Korean defence ministry official said the country would 'resolutely' deal with its neighbour's measures.
The announcement came hours after a fleet of South Korean warships staged a large-scale anti-submarine drill off the west coast, despite warnings that such exercises will drive the peninsula to the brink of war.

The two Koreas are still technically at war because their 1950-53 conflict ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty.

As a result of the Korean War, the U.S. stations 28,500 troops in South Korea. They are on their highest alert since the north made its second nuclear test in May last year.

The JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, citing a Seoul official, reported that the South Korean and U.S. combined forces raised its surveillance level - known as Watch Condition - up a level from three to two. Level one is the highest.

South Korea, backed by the U.S., Japan and other allies, has begun carrying out punitive measures including slashing trade, resuming propaganda warfare and barring the north's cargo ships.

But North Korea has responded by threatening to wage 'all-out counterattacks' and barring South Korean ships and airliners from its waters and airspace.
North Korean Major General Pak Chan Su said: 'We will never tolerate the slightest provocations of our enemies, and will answer to that with all-out war.

'This is the firm standpoint of our People's Army.'

Ten warships fired artillery and dropped depth charges during the South Korean anti-submarine drills off the coast of Taean, 95 miles south of Seoul.

It is the first anti-submarine drill since the Cheonan disaster, which occurred about 100 miles to the north.

South Korea is planning two major joint military drills with the U.S. off the west coast in July.

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THE EVIDENCE AGAINST THE NORTH

* Fragments recovered from the waters near the Koreas' maritime border indicate the torpedo came from communist North Korea.
* Pieces recovered at the sinking site 'perfectly match' the schematics of the torpedo included in introductory brochures provided to foreign countries by North Korea for export purposes.
* A serial number on a torpedo fragment also was consistent with markings from a North Korean torpedo that South Korea obtained years earlier.
* Investigators also confirmed that several small North Korean submarines and a mother ship supporting them left a North Korean naval base on the western coast two to three days ago prior to the attack, and returned to port two to three days after the attack.
* All submarines from neighbouring countries were either in or near their respective home bases at the time of the incident.

North Korea threatens 'all-out war' as torpedo row grows

Parts of a torpedo salvaged from the Yellow Sea Evidence overwhelmingly proves North Korea fired a torpedo that sank a South Korean warship.The marking '1 beon' ('No.1' in English) is written on parts of a torpedo salvaged from the Yellow Sea

A real-size blueprint of a torpedo above torpedo parts salvaged from the Yellow Sea during a press conference at the Defence Ministry in Seoul this morning

North Korea threatened 'all-out war' if Seoul retaliates for the torpedo attack which sank a South Korean warship.

Pyongyang made the threat yesterday as it dismissed a report by an international team of specialists that found a torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine sank the 1,200-tonne Cheonan in March, killing 46 sailors.

Investigators said they had discovered part of the torpedo used in the attack on the sea floor and it carried lettering that matched a North Korean design.
The sinking is one of South Korea's worst naval tragedies and the country's outraged president Lee Myung Bak promised 'stern action' against the North, calling an emergency meeting of his security staff for today.


A giant offshore crane salvages the bow section of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan off Baengnyeong Island shortly after the sinking

Parts of a torpedo salvaged from the Yellow Sea Evidence overwhelmingly proves North Korea fired a torpedo that sank a South Korean warship

South Korean Navy rear admiral Park Jung-Soo talks in front of the wreckage of the naval vessel Cheonan in Pyeongtaek

Soldiers stand guard near the wreckage of the naval vessel Cheonan, which was sunk on March 26 near the maritime border

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak talks with U.S. President Barrack Obama. Mr Obama expressed full support for South Korea's handling of the March 26 sinking

State trip: North Korea's 'supreme leader' Kim Jong Il is pictured during a recent visit to China. Analysts speculated that the trip was cut short after Kim's hosts warned him over the torpedo strike

Protesters break a mock North Korean missile with portraits of the North's founder Kim Il-sung, his son and current leader Kim Jong-il and what they say is Kim Jong-il's son Kim Jong-un at a protest in front of the Defence Ministry building in Seoul

 
This map shows the Northern Limit Line between North and South Korea

 A portrait of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is displayed as South Korean protesters stage a memorial service for the 46 dead sailors


The North responded by saying any provocative acts would be met with a 'merciless strong physical blow'.

As China urged both countries to show restraint, the White House warned the sinking was an 'act of aggression' that challenged peace.

The U.S. State Department said it was an 'unprovoked and unwarranted act' for which there will 'definitely be consequences'.

'Clearly this was a serious provocation by North Korea and there will definitely be consequences because of what North Korea has done,' a department spokesman said.
Britain's new Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned the attack and its 'total indifference to human life'.

The ship was on a routine patrol in the Yellow Sea, near Baengnyeong Island, off the North Korean coast near the dispute maritime border, when it exploded and sank.

The investigation led by British, U.S., Swedish and Australian experts, who collected evidence from the seabed, the wreckage of the ship and 58 survivors, said: 'The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired from a North Korean submarine.

'There is no other plausible explanation.'

Technically, the two countries remain at war and the release of the report is certain to increase tension on the divided Korean peninsula, where the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, rather than a peace treaty.
The land border is the world's most heavily armed.

In an immediate response, Pyongyang declared: 'The all-out war to be undertaken by us will be a sacred war involving the whole nation, all the people and the whole state.'

The North also warned the South against any provocative acts near the border in the aftermath of the sinking, warning it would react with an 'unlimited retaliatory blow'.

Financial markets in Seoul showed little reaction to the widely anticipated findings but were watching nervously for any serious escalation in tensions.

'The key is what kind of measures South Korea will take and how North Korea will react to them,' said Choi Seong-lak, an analyst at SK Securities.

'If things become violent it will affect foreign investors, but for today the impact from the result itself will be limited.'

International condemnation was immediate, with the stark exception of China, which analysts say is desperate to avoid any action that might destablise its reclusive neighbour and lead to a spill-out into in its territory.

A senior South Korean government official said previously that the attack appeared to have been in revenge for a firefight near the disputed North-South border late last year in which the North's navy was humiliated.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called the contents of the South Korean investigation deeply troubling.

Both the United States and Britain gave their backing to the findings, with the White House calling it an act of aggression that was another sign of the North's unacceptable behaviour.

Japan ruled out the resumption of nuclear disarmament talks by five regional powers and the North, and said Washington shared its view that such negotiations aimed at aiding Pyongyang in return for a promise to drop its nuclear arms were unthinkable.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu urged both sides on the divided Korean peninsula to exercise restraint, and said Beijing would make its own assessment of the South Korean investigation.
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will hold an emergency meeting of his National Security Council tomorrow.

His government has already made clear it has no plans for a retaliatory strike but will be pressing the international community to take action, probably more sanctions, against the North.

'We will be taking firm, responsive measures against the North, and through international cooperation, we have to make the North admit its wrongdoing and come back as a responsible member of the international community,' Lee told Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

The report, announced in a nationally televised news conference, said intelligence had shown that North Korean submarines were likely in operation near the scene of the sinking.

'The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine,' it said.
The issue has plunged already icy relations between the two Koreas deeper into the freezer.

North Korea said the South's conservative government was using the incident for political gain and to further undermine ties between the two Koreas, which have yet to sign a formal peace treaty to end their 1950-53 war.

'Our army and people will promptly react to any 'punishment' and 'retaliation' and to any 'sanctions' infringing upon our state interests with various forms of tough measures including an all-out war,' Pyongyang's National Defence Commission said in a typically florid statement.
The issue also puts China in a tricky spot. The host of on-again, off-again regional talks to rein in North Korea's nuclear weapons programme is the state's only major ally and is reluctant to penalise its government.

'It's going to be very, very difficult for China to navigate this one. The South Koreans are not particularly pleased about what China's doing,' said Charles Freeman, China expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Seoul is already upset with Beijing, a major trading partner, for hosting North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on a rare trip abroad before the outcome of the investigation was announced.

But there have been media reports in the South that Chinese leaders may not have given the frail-looking Kim as much support as he wanted, speculating ties may now be starting to fray.

Paik Jin-hyun, a North Korea expert at Seoul National University, said tension between the two Koreas was inevitable.

'North Korea has given out war threats before and they are doing this now because the situation has become urgent for them. They will try to block sanctions at all costs. In this heightened state of affairs, provocations may occur.'
So, what happens next? How the West will deal with North Korea's deadly strike

How regional security dynamics could change in the wake of one of the deadliest strikes since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War and the likely reaction in financial markets:

SOUTH KOREA FLEXES ITS MUSCLES
Market players do not see the South planning a revenge strike on the North, but expect it to increase its military presence near the sea border where its ship went down. They worry that Seoul could then be more likely to attack North Korean vessels nearing the border, instead of issuing warnings first, as it has done before, leading to firefights that spook markets.

When news first broke of a possible North Korean link shortly after the vessel, the Cheonan, sank in late March, shares on Wall Street fell, the won dropped and the price to insure South Korean sovereign debt rose to 83 basis points from 78.

KEEPING A LID ON THE SITUATION
The South's main military ally, the United States, and the North's biggest backer, China, both see it in regional and global interests to prevent escalation and will pressure Seoul and Pyongyang to keep their tempers and armies under control.

However, the two global powers may not be able to prevent brief, live-fire exchanges between the rival Koreas who station more than 1 million troops near their border.

MISSILES, ARTILLERY AND TAUNTS
But North Korea may persist in sabre-rattling that often includes missile tests and threats to attack its capitalist neighbour as it tries to win concessions from global powers to decrease the threat it poses to the economically vibrant region.

Markets are long used to this and do not expect such moves to have any impact on trading. But any test firing of a longer-range ballistic missile designed to hit all of the South, most of Japan and U.S. military bases in Guam would increase long-term risks, and market jitters might ripple beyond the South or the region.

MORE U.N. SANCTIONS
The most feasible recourse for the South will be to enlist the Security Council for tougher sanctions against the North.

This will require convincing China to come on board, involving a long and intricate diplomatic manoeuvre to bring Beijing around to the argument that in spite of the risks of destabilising the leadership in Pyongyang, the world must not be left to watch the North get away with unprovoked.

NUCLEAR TEST
North Korea has tested nuclear devices twice. A third test would put it closer to having a working nuclear bomb, but it would also deplete its meagre supply of fissile material, which is thought to be enough for six to eight bombs.

Because a third nuclear test would not significantly alter market perceptions of risks, any negative impact on asset prices would again be relatively small and short-term.
Experts say even if North Korea develops a bomb, it has no practical means to deliver it.


SOUTH KOREA REVAMPS MILITARY POSTURE
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has been critical of the way the navy ship was vulnerable to a torpedo attack and how the military's chain of command in the immediate aftermath of the ship's sinking nearly broke down.

Lee has repeatedly said the military must build on the findings of the probe and improve its readiness. There has also been a call to change the military's focus from passive defence to pro-active deterrence.

Some analysts say such a change would not be effective against the North's military that itself stresses deterrence, raising the possibility of a direct confrontation.

South Korea will likely upgrade its joint training with U.S. forces, especially on defence against North Korean submarines and torpedo attacks, a move which is certain to provoke the North, which has said such drills are preparations for war.

WAR?
Straight after the South announced the findings of the probe on the sunk ship, North Korea's powerful National Defence Commission warned of war if Seoul retaliates with sanctions.

North Korea has on previous occasions made bellicose threats to turn Seoul into a 'sea of fire' and reduce the South to 'ashes'. But military experts do not believe the North's army is any match for the modern military forces of the South and its ally, the United States.