Europe on alert for Icelandic volcano ash cloud

Smoke rise from the Grimsvotn volcano, under the Vatnajokull glacier in southeast Iceland May 21, 2011.

An eruption by Iceland’s most active volcano was set to keep the island’s main airport shut today, while other European nations watched for any impact on their air routes from a towering plume of smoke and ash.

Experts said they saw little chance of a repeat of last year’s six-day closure of airspace, which also hit transatlantic flights, when another Icelandic volcano erupted, although airlines have been warned the new ash cloud will drift.

So far Iceland, particularly the towns and villages to the south and east of the Grimsvotn volcano, have suffered most. Day turned into night when a thick cloud of ash descended on the area, smothering cars and buildings.







The cloud had also begun to drift over the capital Reykjavik by late last evening and the civil aviation authority said the prospects for re-opening the main international airport on Monday were not good.

Europe’s air traffic control organization warned on its website that ash could spread southwards.

“Ash cloud is expected to reach North Scotland on Tuesday 24th May. If volcanic emissions continue with same intensity, cloud might reach west French airspace and north Spain on Thursday 26th May,” it said in a traffic bulletin.

Iceland’s meteorological office said the plume from Grimsvotn, which last exploded in 2004, had fallen to 10 to 15km in height from a peak of 25km.

But the eruption was much stronger than the one at a volcano further south last year which closed European airspace and halted transatlantic flights, due to worries that particles could get into aircraft engines and cause accidents. The airline industry said it lost US$1.7 billion (RM5.12 billion) in revenues.

“It could lead to some disruption, but only for a very limited time and only over a very limited area,” said University of Iceland Professor of Geophysics Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson.

“We see some signs that the (eruption’s) power is declining a bit, but it is still quite powerful,” he said, adding that the eruption was the most violent at the volcano since 1873.

LAYERS OF ASH

Gudmundsson and other vulcanologists said the impact on air travel this time would be more limited as winds were more favourable, the plume’s content was heavier and less likely to spread, and authorities had a higher tolerance for ash levels.

Some airlines complained that authorities had been excessively cautious in imposing blanket closures of airspace during last year’s eruption.

Icelandair, the main airline on the island, stopped flights on Sunday and said on its website the halt could continue on Monday. It said 6,000 passengers had been affected by cancellations so far.

Dave Mcgarvie, vulcanologist at Britain’s Open University, said any ash which reached Britain would be less than last year and added that experience gained since the 2010 eruption would lead to less disruption.

In emailed comments, he said “minor re-routing” should enable aircraft to avoid zones where ash is concentrated.

Grimsvotn lies under the Vatnajokull glacier in southeast Iceland, the largest glacier in Europe.

Areas to the south of glacier have been covered in thick layers of ash and the sun was blocked out for several hours.

“It was like night is during the winter,” said Benedikt Larusson, speaking in the town of Kirkjubaejarklaustur. “Now it is a little bit better. Now I can see about 100m, but before it was about one meter.”

Iceland volcanic ash threatens half-term getaway dozens of europe flights cancelled.

* BA, Easyjet, Loganair, KLM and Eastern Airways all cancel flights after Civil Aviation Authority warning
* President Obama cuts short his stay in Ireland to avoid effects of ash cloud
* Aviation sector says it is better prepared than last year
* Transport Secretary warns of further disruption in the week ahead
* Click here to see live video of volcano eruption viewed from space

Tens of thousands of families are facing air travel chaos from today – and into the half-term holidays – as a thick cloud of volcanic ash descends over the UK.

The towering plume of Icelandic ash, smoke and steam hit Scotland and Ireland last night, bringing disruption to airlines.

British Airways last night cancelled all flights between London and Scotland until 2pm today.

Between 30 and 40 BA flights will be affected from airports including Heathrow, Gatwick and London City to and from Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen. The airline runs 80 flights a day between these airports.

This latest shot shows the ash cloud (the reddish colour) swirling into the atmosphere after spewing from the Grimsvotn volcano

Covered from head to toe with ski goggles and face mask this farmer's son - preparing to herd his sheep to shelter - looks like he is on the set of a science fiction film set

Looking up to the darkened sky because of the ash cloud, Sunna Agustdottir, seven, carries a new-born lamb to shelter at the family farm in Longumyri, Iceland

The ash billows into the sky from the Grimsvotn volcano, under the Vatnajokull glacier in south east Iceland

The huge puffs of ash from the active volcano could ruin many people's plans to jet off as it starts to drift into Europe

Sample: Ash is collected awaiting examination at the command centre in Kirkjubaejarklaustur as authorities prepare to deal with the effects of the eruption

Huge eruption: Smoke plumes from the Grimsvotn volcano create a stunning scene about 120 miles east of Rejkjavik

Chaos in the sky: Aerial view of the eruption of the volcano Grimsvotn in the south-east of Iceland which has forced shut its main international airport

Wearing a face mask, Anna Hardadottir, a farmer of Horgsland, leads a horse through the ash pouring out of the erupting volcano. It has spewed an ash cloud about 15 miles into the sky

An infra-red image showing the plume of smoke spreading out from south-east Iceland. The pinkish-red part shows the fallout from the eruption, the brown is normal cloud cover. Britain is braced in case it begins to drift east.

Stunning: As the volcano erupts, huge dark ash and storm clouds gather across the Icelandic skyline

Ash from the Grimsvotn volcano hanging in the sky over Iceland. The cloud has spewed 12 miles into the atmosphere

How are we going to get home? Tourists leave the Islandia Hotel yesterday in Nupur as ash continue to pour out of the erupting volcano

Electrical storm: Ash is hurled miles into the air by the eruption, creating thunderstorms around the volcano

Awesome power: Keflavik airport has been closed to air passengers as of 8.30am this morning following the eruption

Iceland Volcano May Disrupt European Air Traffic as Ash Cloud Reaches UK

An Icelandic volcanic eruption pushed an ash cloud toward the UK, curtailing US President Barack Obama's visit to Ireland and threatening to snarl air traffic across Europe.

Icelandic volcano set to erupt dwarfing last year's devastation, warn scientists

Scientists in Iceland are warning that another volcano on the island looks set to erupt, threatening to spew-out a blanket of dust that would dwarf last year's eruption.

Geologists detected the high risk of a new eruption after noticing an increased swarm of earthquakes around the island's second largest volcano Bárdarbunga.

Pall Einarsson, a professor of geophysics at the University of Iceland, says the area around Bárdarbunga is showing signs of increased activity, which provides 'good reason to worry'.

Last year's eruption of volcanos near Eyjafjallajokull, located in the south of the island, caused chaos around the world as hundreds of planes were grounding due to dust and ash filling the sky.

 Cloud: Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano spews ash and ice into the air causing travel chaos  in May last year with hundreds of planes grounded

 Eruption: Lava flows from Eyjafjallajokul sending plumes of thick black smoke high into the air in Iceland

Mr Einarsson told the country's national TV station 'RC:v' that a low number of seismometer measuring devices in the area is making it more difficult to determine the scale and likely outcome of the current shifts.

But he said there was 'every reason to worry' as the sustained earthquake tremors to the north-east of the remote volcano range are the strongest recorded in recent times and there was 'no doubt' the lava was rising.

The geologist complained that the lack of coverage from measuring devices means he cannot accurately detect the depth and exact location of the increased number of localised earth movements.

'This is the most active areas of the country if we look at the whole country together,' he told Icelandic TV News.

'There is no doubt that lava there is slowly growing, and the seismicity of the last few days is a sign of it.

We need better measurements because it is difficult to determine the depth of earthquakes because it is in the middle of the country and much of the area is covered with glaciers.'

Eruptions at the Eyjafjallajokull volcano thrust torrents of molten rock through the shattered ice sheets in the mountain crater, spewing a towering wall of ash, dust and steam high into the air.

Respected volcano watcher Jón Frímann, said on his volcano watch blog: 'After the
Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption in 2010 it seems that geologists in Iceland take earthquake swarms more seriously then they did before.'

He explained the Icelandic Met Office had on Sunday warned of the increased risk of a eruption in north-west side of Vatnajökulll glacier due to the high earthquake activity in the area, and added: 'It is clear that only time is going to tell us if there is going to be a eruption in this area soon or not.'

The last recorded eruption of Bárdarbunga was in 1910, although vulcanologists believe its last major eruption occurred in 1477 when it produced a huge plume of ash and pumice and the largest known lava flow during the past 10,000 years on Earth.

It is the second largest volcano on Iceland and is directly above the mantle of molten rock.

 Could this happen again? Scientists fear that the Bardabunga volcano could cause similar scenes if it erupts

 Delays: Thousands of passengers whose flights were cancelled were forced to travel hundreds of miles by coach or ferry

 Stuck: Passengers queue to board coaches for other airports, after their flights were cancelled due to the volcanic ash cloud re-entering the UK's airspace last year

Ash-hit Europe on track to normal, sporadic disruptions to air travel likely to occur

An airplane of British Airways is about to land at the Heathrow Airport in London, capital of Britain, April 21, 2010.


Flights and life are returning to normal in Europe as Iceland's Eyjafjjoell volcano has reined in her temper, though sporadic disruptions to air travel are expected to occur due to the drifting volcanic ash.

Flights in Europe have returned to normal, one week after the volcanic eruption caused the continent to almost completely shut down its airspace, the European air safety coordination body Eurocontrol said on Friday.

"At the current time, almost all European airspace is available, with the exception of part of northern Scotland," Eurocontrol said in a statement. It expected 29,000 flights to take place on Friday, the normal number.

On the same day, Finnish Civil Aviation Administration said in a statement that all airspace restrictions had been removed in Finland and all airports across the country had been opened for air traffic and were operating normally.

The statement also noted that no new flight restrictions were to be expected, based on the latest forecast on volcanic ash cloud movements on Friday morning.

However, the situation remains unstable. The airspace in southern Finland, southern Norway, northern Scotland and western Sweden had to be closed again Thursday, as a change in the wind direction brought volcanic ash from Iceland back into Scandinavian skies.



Iceland was closing its airspace on the weekend since the wind started to blow ash eastwards, forcing Reykjavik' Keflavik airport to be closed on Friday, for the first time in more than a month.

More than 100,000 flights had been canceled since April 14 when European countries shut down their airspace following the Icelandic volcanic eruption, stranding millions of passengers.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) put the overall cost to the airline industry at 1.7 billion U.S. dollars.

Besides inflicting a huge cost to European airlines, the ash cloud's potential impact on the other sectors of the economy is also significant.

PricewaterhouseCoopers said a week of disruption could destroy 0.025-0.05 percent of annual British gross domestic product. The same could be true of other European countries, though Germany said the impact on its economy would be limited.

During the disruption, some economic activities simply moved from one sector to another. Road and rail transport in many areas increased at the expense of air travel, it argued.

The disruption could also prompt some companies to make fresh investments to strengthen distribution and logistics system, which might actually be positive for economic growth.

European airspace reopens, no further major disruptions foreseen

An airplane of British Airways is about to land at the Heathrow Airport in London, capital of Britain, April 21, 2010. The British authority reopened its airspace from 10:00 p.m. on Tuesday, which had been shut down since April 15 owing to the influence of volcanic ash from Iceland.

Europe's airspace is now quickly returning to normal business as about 80 percent of scheduled flights took off Wednesday and 100 percent expected for Thursday.

With the Icelandic volcano at the source of this historic travel disruptions losing its fury, scientists now foresee no major chaos like this current one in the near future, although long, small disruptions are still very likely to occur.




All Europe's main air hubs were up and running Wednesday and the European air traffic agency Eurocontrol said it expected some 21,000 flights in European airspace, against a typical 28,000 on a normal day, or more than three-quarters of the full volume to have taken off that day.

The agency predicted normal traffic on Thursday. "It is anticipated that almost 100 percent of the air traffic will take place in Europe tomorrow, Thursday April 22," it said in a statement.

In Europe's far north, Helsinki in Finland and airspace over the remote Scottish isles of Orkney and Shetland were temporarily reclosed due to still unsafe ash levels. But Iceland's other Nordic neighbors, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, have lifted the last of their restrictions.



While airlines are now scrambling to ship millions of stranded passengers to their destinations, recriminations have begun to fly over whether the week-long shutdown was necessary, which caused the worst traffic chaos in Europe since World War Two.

Overall damage to the global airline industry has reached 1.7 billion U.S. dollars since governments closed their airspace on April 14, according to the International Air Traffic Association.

Airline chiefs have fiercely criticized Europe's chaotic response to the volcanic ash cloud, saying the decisions were based on flawed data or unsubstantiated fears. An aviation group called the financial fallout worse than the three-day worldwide shutdown after the 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States.

European governments "must take their responsibility" and help the carriers, said IATA chief Giovanni Bisignani. Now governments needed to look at how to compensate the airlines, he said.

Some scientists have defended the airspace shutdown, with a volcanologist advising the United Nations saying authorities had no choice but to close their airspace for lack of hard facts about aircraft behavior in volcanic ash.

Closure to air traffic "was the only measure that could be taken", said Henry Gaudru, president of the European Volcanological Society.



The economic impact of the cloud has already hit parts of the supply chain and could potentially dent the fragile recovery from the global recession, experts say.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers said a week of disruption could destroy 0.025-0.05 percent of annual British gross domestic product. The same could be true of other European countries, though Germany said the effect on its economy would be limited.

But there is also saying that the disaster causes no significant loss of total economic output. Although several industries such as airlines were hit hard, they could now recoup part of their losses, for example by staging extra flights.

During the disruption, some economic activity simply moved from one sector to another; road and rail transport in many areas increased at the expense of air travel, it is argued.

To the extent that the disruption exposed weaknesses in companies' distribution systems and fall-back plans, it could now prompt fresh investment, which might actually be positive for economic growth.

Travel and tourism, including transport, lodgings and related investment, comprise about 4 percent of West European gross domestic product, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.

But while hotels received fewer incoming tourists, some were able to raise their prices to take advantage of stranded tourists, media reports quoted economists as saying.

Meanwhile, Iceland has reported only an "insignificant" amount of ash erupting from the Eyjafjoell volcano now, and with scientists and manufacturers having downgraded the risk of flying in areas of relatively low concentrations, it is predicted as unlikely that any future disruptions will be as serious.

"Explosive activity has diminished. Ash production has gone down. It's really insignificant right now," Pall Einarsson from Iceland's Institute of Earth Sciences told reporters at the government's Civil Protection Agency.

However, Einarsson stressed that the volcano continues to erupt and is unpredictable, foreseeing long-lasting eruptions which may cause small- scale fresh air traffic disruptions.

What lesson could be drawn from volcano ash crisis?

 

Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupted last Wednesday, spewing steam and billows of ash into the sky. The volcanic eruption is not, by any means, a large-scale one and has not caused casualties up to now.

However, the eruption has pulled Europe out of track.

Because of the ash spreading to the European continent, canceled flights to, from, and within Europe have affected millions of travelers worldwide and reportedly cost airliners some 200 million U.S. dollars a day.



 





 


The eruption of a small-scale volcano like the Eyjafjallajokull one could trigger a massive chaos. It is of course worthwhile to explore the lessons from the volcano ash crisis.

First and foremost, an early warning and forecasting system is vital to tackling the disaster resulting from the volcanic eruption.

It is commonly accepted that volcanic eruptions are unpredictable. But it is possible to monitor and forecast the movement and scale of volcano ash.

Scientists in Europe have well performed their duty in sending early warning of the volcano ash, thus avoiding potential aviation incident.

German news magazine Spiegel reported that Icelandic meteorologists informed their British colleagues at midday on Wednesday. The British meteorologists immediately put their supercomputer on the job, and 15 minutes later, they had their first forecast of how the dust cloud would probably spread.

"A warning was sent out to airlines at 2 p.m., long before the cloud reached the European continent," said the news magazine.

However, Europeans reacted slowly in rationally arrange train and road transportation systems to divert the people trapped at airports.

Statistics showed that by late Sunday, more than 63,000 flights had been canceled in 23 European countries, stifling the lifeblood of the continent's economy.

Because few planes are available for service, travelers can't continue their travel, machinery parts can't get to factories, food sellers can't transport their goods, and businesses are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain regular business activities.

As an old Chinese saying goes: "it is never too late to mend the sheepfold." The Icelandic volcano ash crisis has helped expand people's knowledge about volcanic eruptions, and various debates and assessments are conducted or to be conducted across the globe, Europe in particular.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has decided to set up an ad-hoc group to assess the impact of the volcanic ash cloud on the air travel industry and the economy.

"The volcanic ash cloud has created an unprecedented situation," Barroso said in a statement, adding that it is important that all measures to be considered are coordinated at the European level.

The transport ministers from all 27 European Union states are planning a video conference to discuss counter measures, aiming to bar more negative impact on the European economy, which is still struggling out of the financial crisis.

However, the railway companies and road transporters are benefiting from the crisis. Major railway stations across West Europe were crowded with passengers and Eurostar tickets are fully booked even two days ahead of departure.

As the volcano ash spreads across borders, people are calling for more international and regional coordination and cooperation.

As a matter of fact, meteorologists, airline companies and governments across Europe have held timely and smooth exchanges of their information since the volcanic eruption.

In 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami drove the international community to enhance the global early warning system for tsunami.

Later on, in the Haiti earthquake and the Chile earthquake earlier this year, such an early warning system has played a vital role in avoiding more deaths and casualties in the aftermath of the earthquakes.

Similarly, the Icelandic volcano ash crisis could press Europeans to realize the importance of more international and regional coordination and cooperation, and volcano ash monitoring and warning could become a regular practice in Europe in the future.

Dramatic satellite pictures show Iceland volcano still erupting... but ash on the wane at last

This false-colour image from an infrared satellite shows how the volcanic ash has spread over Europe. The ash shows up as red - however it can also be drawn up into clouds and is likely to be far more widely dispersed

This image from Nasa's Terra spacecraft shows how violently the volcano was erupting on April 15, when the UK closed its airspace. On the left is a natural-colour image while an infrared composite is on the right

A new satellite image of ash spewing from Iceland's volcano on 19 April from ESA's Envisat satellite. The visible plume is around 250miles long

The ash plume streams southwards over the Northern Atlantic Ocean in a satellite photograph from April 17. Thermal readings from the volcano vent reveal emissions equivalent to the energy consumed by 60,000 homes

The ash plume streams southwards over the Northern Atlantic Ocean in a satellite photograph from April 17. Thermal readings from the volcano vent reveal emissions equivalent to the energy consumed by 60,000 homes

The huge plume of ash thrown from the Icelandic volcano that has closed airports across Europe, may at last be dying down.



Scientists have revealed that although the volcano created powerful new tremors today, the eruptions are weakening and it is finally emitting less dangerous dust.
The cloud rising above the Eyjafjallajökull crater is now reaching a height of around 9,800ft according to the UK Met Office. Although a new eruption has pushed that back up to 13,000ft

Last week the tower of dangerous ash was 36,000ft high.

However, weather patterns continue to blow volcanic ash towards the UK.

Still British experts today said they were 'cautiously optimistic' that the ash could be on the wane.

Dr David Rothery, from the UK's Open University said: 'There is no high ash column rising above the vent.

'If this persists then the high altitude ash cloud will be starved of fresh air and eventually disperse.'

An official at Iceland's Met Office said ash production had fallen sharply and the nature of the eruption appeared to be changing.

'Our web cameras show that there is not much ash but mostly steam now,' said the geologist Hjorleifur Sveinbjornsson.

'The colour of the steam is brown but also quite white so it is more like water vaporising.'
*

Scientists flying above the volcano said lava had burst from the crater and onto the Eyjafjallajokull glacier that sits atop the volcano.

The appearance of lava could suggest the eruption is moving into a less explosive phase.

Fewer explosions would mean less of the menacing ash that has drifted to the European continent, choking the upper atmosphere with tiny particles of glass and pulverised rock and causing countries across Europe to close their airspace.

There was still a risk, however, that molten rock could create new pathways for meltwater from the ice cap to run into the crater, causing more explosions and a higher level of ash production, he said.


The UK Met office is using both satellite images and a type of radar from the ground to keep track of the cloud. Infrared cameras are providing valuable data because ash particles interact with radiation in a different way to ordinary cloud particles.

This information is then used to create a real-time image of the skies over Europe.

A Met office spokesman said: 'Assuming the volcanic activity continues to weaken, we can expect ash clearance across the UK and we will be looking for the earliest opportunity that this might happen.'
However, those in Iceland may not be so lucky. Weather forecasts show a shift in winds to the north could cause ash to fall over the capital Reykjavick.

The Civil Protection Department have prepared plans for such an occurrence such as closing schools.

Iceland sits on a volcanic hotspot in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and has relatively frequent eruptions, though most happen in sparsely populated areas and pose little danger to people or property.